2016-17 total grains supply could reach new record

The projection for global grains production in 2016-17 is 9 million tonnes higher month-on-month, at 2.006 billion, a small year-on-year gain, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its April 28 Grain Market Report. The total grains supply could potentially reach a new record, the IGC said.

Beneficial weather is improving the outlook for wheat, including in the E.U. and Russia, while maize forecasts are raised for a number of countries. Total consumption is a little higher month-on-month and is seen expanding slightly year-on-year, to 2 billion tonnes, second only to use in 2014-15. The world stocks figure is lifted by 7 million tonnes, to 472 million tonnes, up by 6 million tonnes year-on-year, including a significant accumulation in China. Trade is placed marginally higher month-on-month, but is still 8 million tonnes down year-on-year, partly because of likely reduced shipments to China.

While forecasts for world total grains supply and demand in 2015-16 are similar to the last report, concerns have increased over the past month about maize (corn) prospects in South America, the IGC said. Untimely rains are hindering the harvest in Argentina, while prolonged dryness has cut yield potential in Brazil. The adverse weather has also affected soybean output in the region.

Reflecting the impact of poor weather in South America, notably in Argentina, the 2015-16 world soybean production forecast is cut by 5 million tonnes, to 318 million tonnes. Nevertheless, this is only fractionally short of the previous season’s record. Prospects for crops in 2016-17 are tentative. But with output projected to be broadly unchanged year-on-year as consumption rises further, global carryovers could contract by 16%, to 32 million tonnes, the smallest in three years. Trade is expected to edge up to a high of 133 million tonnes on Asia’s expanding needs.

A much tighter scenario is seen for rapeseed and canola in 2016-17 on another drop in world production. At 4.4 million tonnes, aggregate inventories are projected to contract by one-fifth, led by a particularly steep decline in Canada.

Forecasts for rice supply and demand in 2015-16 are little changed from before, with global inventories expected to fall by 11% on steep declines in key exporters. Centered on a recovery in Asia, including in India, the 2016-17 world rice outturn is projected at an all-time peak of 485 million tonnes, up by 3% year-on-year. However, due to smaller carry-ins and continued growth in food use, stocks are anticipated to tighten to an eight-year low of 94 million tonnes. Trade in calendar 2017 depends on crop outcomes and availabilities in Asian and African markets, but is expected to stay close to 42 million tonnes.

While conditions have not always been ideal, the outlook for 2016-17 grains supply remains mostly good and, having been upgraded from before, global production is projected to slightly exceed the previous year. Smaller outturns of wheat, barley and sorghum are expected to be offset by a better maize harvest. A modest increase in consumption is forecast. In the feed sector, larger availabilities and likely attractive prices could encourage use of maize, with demand for wheat, barley and sorghum falling.

In spite of strong demand, a further build-up of grains carryover stocks is envisaged at the end of 2016-17. Those in the major exporters are seen increasing to a seven-year high, while China’s could exceed 200 million tonnes for the first time since 1999 to 2000. World trade is predicted to stay strong and is placed 5% above the average in the five years to 2015-16. However, volumes are seen dropping by 3% year-on-year, in part because of possibly reduced purchases of maize, barley and sorghum by China.

source: world grain

Leave A Comment